Latest news with #global economy
Times of Oman
13 hours ago
- Business
- Times of Oman
India sees strong 12.6% growth in investment confidence in Q3 2025, highest among 32 economies: Report
New Delhi: Despite witnessing a slight drop of 1.4 per cent in business investment confidence, India maintained the highest year-on-year confidence growth among 32 economies surveyed in Q3 2025, with a robust 12.6 per cent rise, according to the D&B Global Business Investment Confidence Index of Dun & Bradstreet (D&B), a data and analytics firm. According to the report, the Global Business Investment Confidence Index fell 13.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q/q) for Q3 2025, the third consecutive quarter of contraction. The drop in confidence is broad-based, with businesses reporting sharp declines in all five sub-indices, compared with Q2 2025, when only the amount of capital expenditure and the size of the workforce were expected to decline. The report highlights that nearly half of businesses (46.8 per cent) reported supply chain stability as very important to determining investments for Q3 2025, while tariff uncertainty was the lowest rated determining factor, similar to domestic interest rates. This aligns with the findings reported earlier in this report; the Global Supply Chain Continuity Index is the lowest of all our indices, at 99.9 for Q3. In the global scenario, the investment confidence fell more in advanced economies than in emerging economies. Even after excluding the U.S., which has the largest weight and fell 16.7 per cent q/q, confidence in advanced economies fell more than in emerging economies. France, Japan, Germany, and Spain recorded the largest falls in advanced economies, reversing improvements made in Q2. Among emerging economies, the largest q/q falls were recorded by the Russian Federation (-26.1 per cent), Brazil (-23.9 per cent), and South Africa (-20.7 per cent). The Central Bank of Brazil has aggressively increased the Selic rate by 425bps since last year, heavily dampening capital expenditure plans. The U.S. is South Africa's third-largest market for automobile exports, so businesses in South Africa are greatly exposed to 25 per cent tariffs. The manufacturing sector recorded a larger drop (-17.2 per cent) in investment confidence than the services sector (-10.8 per cent) for Q3 2025. The biggest declines were the manufacturers of capital goods (-33.1 per cent), food (-26.9 per cent), and automotives (-26.4 per cent). Of the manufacturing sub-sectors, the manufacturing of chemicals reported the smallest drop in confidence, of -14.8 per cent, albeit still a significant decline. This may reflect the exemptions to new U.S. tariffs, particularly those related to pharmaceutical products. Positively, for Q3 2025, businesses reported an expected capacity utilisation of 68.9 per cent for the services sector and 69.3 per cent for the manufacturing sector, the first q/q increase since Q1 2024, according to the report. "Though this is a positive signal for future capital expenditure, the level remains below the 2024 averages of 73.9% and 74.1% for services and manufacturing, respectively," the report added.
Japan Times
18 hours ago
- Business
- Japan Times
G20 communique delivers rare show of unity amid Trump trade war
Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs committed to international policy cooperation in a communique adopted Friday, finding rare consensus amid escalating tensions over the U.S. trade war. "The global economy is facing heightened uncertainty and complex challenges, including ongoing wars and conflicts, geopolitical and trade tension,' the communique said. "We emphasize the importance of strengthening multilateral cooperation to address existing and emerging risks to the global economy.' The agreement, forged during the G20 summit in South Africa's eastern KwaZulu-Natal province, was reached despite simmering tensions over U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, which is set to intensify when higher tariffs take effect on Aug. 1. They have strained the G20's multilateral foundations and complicated South Africa's efforts — as this year's rotating president — to keep the group's agenda on course. "The fact that all members consented to language covering debt relief, climate finance, tax cooperation, and financial stability during such a period demonstrates the success of the approach that we have adopted,' said South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana. It was the first G20 communique this year. Tariffs were not explicitly mentioned in the five-page document. But Godongwana played that down, noting it was a relatively recent issue "and in any case I feel that our discussion on the broad number issues affecting global growth have included the range of risk to economic growth, without singling out tariffs.' The G20 communique did note the importance of the World Trade Organization to advance trade issues, while adding that it recognized "the WTO has challenges and needs meaningful, necessary, and comprehensive reform to improve all its functions.' Officials also sided with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who Trump has excoriated for opposing him by not lowering interest rates, out of concern the levies could spur inflation. "Central banks are strongly committed to ensuring price stability, consistent with their respective mandates, and will continue to adjust their policies in a data-dependent manner,' the communique said. "Central bank independence is crucial to achieving this goal.' South African Reserve Bank Gov. Lesetja Kganyago told reporters at a closing news conference that the issue of independence "came out strongly in the conversation.' Powell did not attend this G20, with the Fed being represented by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The communique also included a prominent reference to "frequent extreme weather events and natural disasters which impact economic growth, financial and price stability.' Climate-change language has been a sticking point with the Trump administration in the past. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent skipped the event in favor of a trip to Japan, but Washington still sent a delegation to represent its interests. By imposing trade levies, scorning South Africa's G20 motto of "solidarity, equality and sustainability' and pulling billions of dollars in funding for climate finance and international aid, the U.S. is testing a world order that has dominated since the end of World War II. That makes achieving a communique all the more impressive, said German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil prior to its adoption. "This is a major achievement for the G20 presidency, which has conducted these negotiations with prudence and skill,' he told reporters at the gathering, at a lush resort on the Indian Ocean near the port city of Durban. Issuing the communique sends "a strong signal in favor of multilateralism,' he said. Still, tariff uncertainty has dented global economic growth. The International Monetary Fund in April cut its projection for 2025 to 2.8% from a January forecast of 3.3% and IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath, who attended the G20, said that while financial conditions have improved, vigilance was important. "While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high,' she said in a statement as the gathering concluded.
Asharq Al-Awsat
a day ago
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook
The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation. In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of US tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth. At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July. According to Reuters, Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook. "While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks. She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path. Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials. Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight. For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms. More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
IMF eyes revised global forecast, but warns trade tensions still cloud outlook
By Andrea Shalal WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation. In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth. At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July. Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook. "While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks. She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path. Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials. Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight. For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms. More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
IMF eyes revised global forecast, but warns trade tensions still cloud outlook
WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation. In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth. At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July. Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook. "While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks. She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path. Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials. Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight. For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms. More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said.
